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长沙Q420C钢板何时真正迎来凤凰涅槃

阅读次数[] 发布时间:2018/10/26 10:40:46

 长沙Q420C钢板何时真正迎来凤凰涅槃

 
When will Changsha Q420C steel plate truly usher in Phoenix Nirvana?
 
最近长沙Q420C钢板价格持续走强,再度把许多钢企拉回生死线。随着钢价上涨,许多钢企毛利在一季度由负转正,开始筹划着趁热打铁的复产大计。在业内人士看来,房地产、基建等被认为是这轮钢价上涨的背后动力,而这是否具有可持续性,目前还很难说。当然,支撑这轮钢价上涨的原动力,还在于央行稳健偏宽松的货币政策。不过,经济刺激虽容易上瘾,但其效用却是边际递减的,何况,货币之“水”可以多放,但经济刺激的“面”却不行。
 
Recently, the price of Q420C steel plate in Changsha has been strong, and many steel enterprises have been pulled back to life and death line again. With steel prices rising, many steel companies in the first quarter from negative to positive gross margins, began to plan to hit the hot iron production plan. In the view of the industry, real estate, infrastructure, etc. is considered to be the driving force behind this round of steel prices, and whether this is sustainable, it is still difficult to say. Of course, the driving force behind the rise in steel prices is still in the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy. However, although economic stimulus is addictive, its effectiveness is diminishing marginally. Moreover, the "water" of money can be put more, but the "face" of economic stimulus is not.
 
这样一来,若认为Q420C钢板业最坏的时候已过去,寻求复产,那这种决策可能将是“扭曲的”,因为复产增加的或许是企业负债,而不一定变现产出。说这话的意思是,当前国内钢企确实需要去产能、去库存、去杠杆,以及市场化的关停并转。没有这些做前提,钢价的上涨终究是货币现象级层面的反弹,而非真正的趋势反转。这点正是人们担忧的。
 
Thus, if the worst of Q420C is over and a return to production is sought, the decision may be "distorted" because the return to production may increase corporate debt, not necessarily cash output. What this means is that the current domestic steel companies really need to go to capacity, to inventory, to deleverage, and market-oriented shutdown and parallel. Without these preconditions, the rise in steel prices is ultimately a rebound at the monetary level, not a real reversal of trend. This is what people are worried about.
其实,从稳增长等角度看,适度的刺激是必要的,但这应该有一个前提,即市场出清与否、僵尸企业退出与否等,应作为适度刺激的前提,这就如同把吃得多但不长膘的猪送到屠宰场后,再喂食吃得多长得快的猪,刺激的边际效应会更大一样。
 
In fact, from a steady growth perspective, moderate stimulation is necessary, but there should be a premise: whether the market clears or not, the exit of the zombie enterprise should be a prerequisite for moderate stimulation, which is like stimulating the pig to the pig farm after feeding the * * but not fat to the slaughterhouse. The effect will be even greater.
 
因此,当前长沙Q420C钢板行业的供给侧改革,需要的是一个清晰的制度输出和保障。决策层在钢铁业的去产能、去库存、去杠杆中,应该做什么、不应该做什么,需要一个清晰的负面清单管理,划定政府与市场的边界,让市场在资源配置中发挥基础性作用,避免变相拉郎配及行政力量间接影响钢铁企业的关停并转,导致劣币驱逐良币等问题。
 
Therefore, the current supply-side reform of Changsha Q420C steel plate industry needs a clear system output and guarantee. What should be done and what should not be done by the decision-makers in the process of de-production, de-inventory and de-leverage of the iron and steel industry requires a clear negative list management, delineating the boundaries between the government and the market, allowing the market to play a fundamental role in the allocation of resources, and avoiding the indirect influence of disguised La Lang Pai and administrative forces on the shutdown of the iron and steel enterprises. In turn, bad money drives out good money.
 
首先,真正推进钢铁业的供给侧改革,就需要政府构建一个负面清单管理目录,明确去产能、去库存、去杠杆,以及关停并转等,尊重优胜劣汰的市场民主原则,让市场主体通过买方市场的竞争,将资源集中到那些更具市场生存和创新能力的企业手中,不让大而不倒和所有制结构干扰真正的市场出清。
 
First of all, to propel the supply-side reform of the iron and steel industry, it is necessary for the government to construct a catalogue of negative inventory management, to clearly remove production capacity, inventory, leverage, and shut down and turn around, to respect the principle of market democracy of survival of the fittest, and to allow market players to concentrate resources on those more market-oriented through the competition of the buyer's market. In the hands of enterprises with the ability to preserve and innovate, they should not let the big but not fall and the ownership structure interfere with the real market clearing.
 
总之,当前钢价的走强,并不意味着钢铁业最坏时期已经过去,而更多是新的货币与财政刺激,在钢铁市场激发而起的涟漪。如最近消息称央行要求各行总行新增贷款规模压缩至月初计划数的70%,很可能会对支撑钢铁价格的因素产生不利影响,给准备复产的钢企带来不确定性。这如同股市,每一次的反弹都可能是陷阱。因此,Q420C钢板业需要历经痛苦的去产能、去库存和去杠杆,通过市场手段清理落后产能,进行伐毛洗髓的改革等,才能真正迎来凤凰涅槃。www.otc768.com
 
In short, the current strength of steel prices does not mean that the worst of the steel industry has passed, but more new monetary and fiscal stimulus in the steel market triggered ripples. Recent news that the central bank has asked headquarters to reduce the size of new loans to 70% of the planned figure at the beginning of the month is likely to adversely affect the factors supporting steel prices and bring uncertainty to steel companies preparing to resume production. This is like the stock market. Every rebound can be a trap. Therefore, the Q420C steel plate industry needs to experience painful depletion of production capacity, depletion of inventory and deleveraging, through market means to clean up backward production capacity, the reform of cutting wool and pulping, in order to truly usher in the Phoenix Nirvana. Www.otc768.com
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